β Scottish Premiership 2022-23 Β· Wed, Nov 9, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: John Beaton, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rangers win | 79% | 76% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.56 | value: +10% |
| Hearts win | 8% | 9% | 13.63 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rangers β2 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Hearts β2 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 64% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand