← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Clancy, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 43% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +7% |
| Motherwell win | 29% | 25% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Motherwell −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 1.97 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Ricki Lamie · Motherwell |
| 38' | 🟨 | Craig Gordon · Hearts |
| 38' | 🟥 | Jorge Grant · Hearts |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andy Halliday · Hearts |
| 47' | ⚽ | Andy Halliday · Hearts |
| 61' | 🟨 | Louis Moult · Motherwell |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Louis Moult · Motherwell |
| 73' | 🟨 | Toby Sibbick · Hearts |
| 79' | ⚽ | Blair Spittal · Motherwell |
| 84' | 🟨 | Stuart McKinstry · Motherwell |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Lawrence Shankland · Hearts |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1101.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1514.40 | 1454.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.82 | 14.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.20 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |