← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Fri, Oct 21, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Clancy, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.90 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 15% | 17% | 6.72 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hibernian −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 43% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 57% | 2.17 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mykola Kukharevych · Hibernian |
| 35' | ⚽ | Mykola Kukharevych · Hibernian |
| 45' | 🟨 | James Brown · St Johnstone |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kyle Magennis · Hibernian |
| 68' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kyle Magennis · Hibernian |
| 70' | 🟥 | Kyle Magennis · Hibernian |
| 73' | ⚽ | Nicky Clark · St Johnstone |
| 82' | ⚽ | Stevie May · St Johnstone |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Harry McKirdy · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 173.00 | 5468.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1515.33 | 1420.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.44 | -7.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 61.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.19 | 6.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |