← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Munro, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United win | 40% | 31% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.06 | value: +13% |
| St Johnstone win | 28% | 32% | 3.43 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Dundee United −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Stevie May · St Johnstone |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ryan McGowan · St Johnstone |
| 34' | 🟨 | Aziz Behich · Dundee United |
| 34' | 🟨 | Drey Wright · St Johnstone |
| 39' | ⚽ | Melker Hallberg · St Johnstone |
| 42' | 🟨 | Dylan Levitt · Dundee United |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ian Harkes · Dundee United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Archie Meekison · Dundee United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ryan Edwards · Dundee United |
| 82' | ⚽ | Tony Watt · Dundee United |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| 🟨 |
| Alex Mitchell · St Johnstone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 61.00 | 5448.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1439.68 | 1426.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.63 | -2.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| league points | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.41 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |