← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Sep 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Colin Steven, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 35% | 30% | 2.75 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 32% | 38% | 3.02 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| St Johnstone +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.72 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Nicky Clark · St Johnstone |
| 30' | 🟨 | Charles Dunne · St Mirren |
| 33' | 🟨 | Graham Carey · St Johnstone |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · St Mirren |
| 66' | ⚽ | Drey Wright · St Johnstone |
| 82' | 🟨 | Declan Gallagher · St Mirren |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · St Johnstone |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jonah Ayunga · St Mirren |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marcus Fraser · St Mirren |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Graham Carey · St Johnstone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 4 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Johnstone | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | McDiarmid Park |
| coach days | 5420.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1413.35 | 1468.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.85 | 15.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.45 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | -2.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.65 | 28.18 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -2.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |