← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Colin Steven, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aberdeen win | 52% | 58% | 1.85 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| Livingston win | 21% | 16% | 4.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aberdeen −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Livingston −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 47% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 53% | 2.29 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 2 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand