← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Munro, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross County win | 42% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Kilmarnock win | 28% | 36% | 3.62 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ross County −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Kilmarnock −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 44% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Ross Callachan · Ross County |
| 41' | 🟨 | Kyle Lafferty · Kilmarnock |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oli Shaw · Kilmarnock |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jack Baldwin · Ross County |
| 78' | 🟨 | David Cancola · Ross County |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ross Callachan · Ross County |
| 81' | 🟥 | Ross Callachan · Ross County |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ayodeji Sotona · Kilmarnock |
| 86' | ⚽ | Owura Edwards · Ross County |
| 88' | 🟨 | Liam Donnelly · Kilmarnock |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ross County | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Global Energy Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Callum Johnson · Ross County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 476.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1439.44 | 1443.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.80 | 6.10 |
| eye test v1 | -1.29 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| league points | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.13 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.85 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 27.28 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |