← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: William Collum, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 61% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.37 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 16% | 19% | 6.01 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Rangers +1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +11% |
| Under | 50% | 43% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Ewan Henderson · Hibernian |
| 20' | 🟨 | Connor Goldson · Rangers |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Hibernian |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rocky Bushiri Kiranga · Hibernian |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 51' | ⚽ | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 52' | 🟨 | Antonio Čolak · Rangers |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
| 58' | ⚽ | Tom Lawrence · Rangers |
| 66' | 🟥 | John Lundstram · Rangers |
| 75' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.79 |
| elo | 1492.56 | 1842.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.41 | 12.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 16.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 21.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.22 |
| state index | 0.02 | 1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |