← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sun, Aug 14, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: David Dickinson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 81% | 72% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 8.26 | value: +10% |
| Kilmarnock win | 6% | 14% | 17.00 | value: +143% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic +2 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Kilmarnock +2 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 55% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 45% | 3.00 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Kyogo Furuhashi · Celtic |
| 21' | 🟨 | Rory McKenzie · Kilmarnock |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jota · Celtic |
| 42' | 🟨 | Liam Donnelly · Kilmarnock |
| 45' | ⚽ | Moritz Jenz · Celtic |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kyle Lafferty · Kilmarnock |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daizen Maeda · Celtic |
| 76' | ⚽ | Carl Starfelt · Celtic |
| 78' | 🟨 | Danny Armstrong · Kilmarnock |
| 82' | ⚽ | Giorgos Giakoumakis · Celtic |
| 85' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kilmarnock | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park |
| Callum McGregor · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 225.00 | 439.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 4.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1449.04 | 1809.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.18 | 10.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.04 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 72.00 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 2.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 27.23 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | 1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |