← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alan James Muir, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 52% | 46% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.53 | fair |
| St Mirren win | 20% | 25% | 4.87 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren −0.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Aberdeen −0.75 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 57% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 43% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Declan Gallagher · St Mirren |
| 22' | 🟨 | Declan Gallagher · St Mirren |
| 22' | 🟥 | Declan Gallagher · St Mirren |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 37' | ⚽ | Bojan Miovski · Aberdeen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Leighton Clarkson · Aberdeen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jonah Ayunga · St Mirren |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonah Ayunga · St Mirren |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Greg Kiltie · St Mirren |
| 87' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Duk · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 186.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1464.09 | 1438.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.64 | 10.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |