← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 41% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +8% |
| Dundee United win | 31% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee United +0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Hearts +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.94 | value: +4% |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Liam Boyce · Hearts |
| 4' | ⚽ | Dylan Levitt · Dundee United |
| 44' | ⚽ | Liam Boyce · Hearts |
| 45' | 🟨 | Taylor Moore · Hearts |
| 59' | ⚽ | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ryan Edwards · Dundee United |
| 68' | 🟨 | Chris Mochrie · Dundee United |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Hearts |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ross Graham · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn · Hearts |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peter Haring · Hearts |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 327.00 |
| 905.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.73 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1469.09 | 1568.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.14 | 30.13 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| league points | 41.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |