← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Irvine
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 47% | 50% | 2.09 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Livingston win | 22% | 23% | 4.64 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Aberdeen −0.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 38% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jonny Hayes · Aberdeen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Aberdeen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Vicente Besuijen · Aberdeen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Max Stryjek · Livingston |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nicky Devlin · Livingston |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Jason Holt · Livingston |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 78' | 🟥 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ayo Obileye · Livingston |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Lewis Ferguson · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 81.00 | 538.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1486.36 | 1481.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.83 | -22.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |