← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| St Mirren win | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.15 | value: +20% |
| Dundee United win | 25% | 23% | 3.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St Mirren −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Dundee United −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 40% | 2.64 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand