← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Muir
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 42% | 34% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.01 | fair |
| Hibernian win | 26% | 36% | 4.00 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hibernian −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 57% | 1.46 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 43% | 3.00 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 20' | ⚽ (og) | Calvin Ramsay · Hibernian |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 28' | 🟨 | David Bates · Aberdeen |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Lewis Ferguson · Aberdeen |
| 62' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 63' | 🟥 | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Lewis Ferguson · Aberdeen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lewis Stevenson · Hibernian |
| 80' | ⚽ | Vicente Besuijen · Aberdeen |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ewan Henderson · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 46.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1487.69 | 1527.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.38 | 2.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 46.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 25.37 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |