← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Collum
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 53% | 44% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.82 | value: +21% |
| Dundee United win | 20% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts +0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Dundee United +0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +3% |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Liam Boyce · Hearts |
| 23' | 🟨 | Craig Halkett · Hearts |
| 32' | 🟨 | Calum Butcher · Dundee United |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ellis Simms · Hearts |
| 46' | ⚽ | Liam Smith · Dundee United |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Dundee United |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicky Clark · Dundee United |
| 65' | 🟨 | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 81' | ⚽ | Craig Halkett · Hearts |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ross Graham · Dundee United |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee United | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Tannadice Park |
| 🟨 |
| Marc McNulty · Dundee United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 277.00 | 855.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1459.76 | 1550.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.69 | -6.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 35.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 27.24 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |