← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aberdeen win | 39% | 41% | 2.52 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 30% | 31% | 3.36 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Motherwell +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Aberdeen +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 44% | 2.72 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand