← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 41% | 39% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.04 | fair |
| Livingston win | 27% | 31% | 3.76 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Aberdeen +0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 65% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 35% | 2.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ayo Obileye · Livingston |
| 23' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jack Fitzwater · Livingston |
| 41' | 🟨 | Stephane Omeonga · Livingston |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adam Lewis · Livingston |
| 49' | ⚽ | Alan Forrest · Livingston |
| 66' | ⚽ | Christian Ramirez · Aberdeen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alan Forrest · Livingston |
| 71' | 🟨 | Scott Pittman · Livingston |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jonny Hayes · Aberdeen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Max Stryjek · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Tony Macaroni Arena |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 82' | 🟥 | Cristian Montano · Livingston |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vicente Besuijen · Aberdeen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason Holt · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Mackenzie · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 461.00 |
| 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1480.53 | 1516.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.08 | -7.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 26.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |