β Scottish Premiership 2021-22 Β· Tue, Feb 1, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: E. Anderson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| St Mirren win | 41% | 36% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 39% | 3.10 | value: +20% |
| Motherwell win | 27% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Motherwell β0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| St Mirren β0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand