← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Tue, Feb 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Napier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston win | 42% | 48% | 2.27 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.90 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 24% | 24% | 4.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| St Johnstone −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Callum Hendry · St Johnstone |
| 34' | ⚽ | Bruce Anderson · Livingston |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bruce Anderson · Livingston |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ayo Obileye · Livingston |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jack Fitzwater · Livingston |
| 87' | 🟨 | Murray Davidson · St Johnstone |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joel Nouble · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Nouble · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟥 | Joel Nouble · Livingston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Glenn Middleton · St Johnstone |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Tony Macaroni Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Ali Crawford · St Johnstone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 457.00 | 5206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1495.90 | 1415.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.38 | -40.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.03 | -1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |