← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Tue, Jan 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 52% | 65% | 1.85 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.37 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 20% | 14% | 5.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Aberdeen +0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 47% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 53% | 2.35 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Ianis Hagi · Rangers |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ianis Hagi · Rangers |
| 39' | 🟨 | Scott Brown · Aberdeen |
| 40' | 🟨 | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Aberdeen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Lewis Ferguson · Aberdeen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jonny Hayes · Aberdeen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ryan Kent · Rangers |
| 81' | 🟨 | Connor McLennan · Aberdeen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ryan Kent · Rangers |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aberdeen | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pittodrie Stadium |
| 83' | 🟥 | Ryan Kent · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 323.00 |
| 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1520.76 | 1851.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.90 | 10.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.88 |
| league points | 27.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 23.20 | 23.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.26 |
| state index | 0.87 | 1.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |