β Scottish Premiership 2021-22 Β· Wed, Dec 22, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Munro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 82% | 77% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.95 | value: +3% |
| St Mirren win | 5% | 10% | 19.19 | value: +87% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St Mirren +2.25 | 56% | 1.71 |
| Celtic +2.25 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 58% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 31 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 16 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand