← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Collum
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hearts win | 53% | 44% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.81 | fair |
| Dundee win | 22% | 31% | 4.57 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hearts +0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Dundee +0.5 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park |