← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 12, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 61% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.39 | fair |
| Hearts win | 16% | 14% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hearts +1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Rangers +1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 63% | 1.66 | value: +4% |
| Under | 42% | 37% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 13' | ⚽ | Joe Aribo · Rangers |
| 35' | 🟨 | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 37' | 🟨 | Craig Halkett · Hearts |
| 54' | 🟨 | Craig Gordon · Hearts |
| 69' | 🟨 | James Tavernier · Rangers |
| 70' | 🟨 | Joe Aribo · Rangers |
| 76' | 🟨 | Allan McGregor · Rangers |
| 80' | 🟨 | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 80' | 🟥 | Josh Ginnelly · Hearts |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hearts | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Tynecastle Park |
| Borna Barišić · Rangers |
| 84' | 🟨 | Cameron Devlin · Hearts |
| 85' | 🟨 | Peter Haring · Hearts |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ryan Kent · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 772.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 4.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.81 |
| elo | 1535.34 | 1840.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.48 | 13.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 2.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 17.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 21.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.35 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |