← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 37% | 38% | 2.65 | fair |
| St Mirren win | 34% | 29% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| St Mirren +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Alan Power · St Mirren |
| 11' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ryan Flynn · St Mirren |
| 37' | 🟨 | Christopher Cadden · Hibernian |
| 52' | ⚽ | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 68' | 🟨 | Josh Campbell · Hibernian |
| 71' | 🟨 | Scott Tanser · St Mirren |
| 77' | 🟨 | Darren McGregor · Hibernian |
| 87' | ⚽ | Joe Shaughnessy · St Mirren |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jak Alnwick · St Mirren |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| coach days | 894.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1441.57 | 1533.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.78 | -19.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.36 | 26.83 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |