← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Wed, Dec 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 45% | 52% | 2.15 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.29 | fair |
| Livingston win | 26% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Livingston +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 39% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Jack McMillan · Livingston |
| 17' | 🟨 | Max Stryjek · Livingston |
| 36' | 🟨 | Paul McGinn · Hibernian |
| 49' | 🟨 | Stephane Omeonga · Livingston |
| 50' | 🟨 | James Penrice · Livingston |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Hibernian |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paul Hanlon · Hibernian |
| 85' | 🟨 | Paul McGinn · Hibernian |
| 85' | 🟥 | Paul McGinn · Hibernian |
| 89' | 🟨 | Paul Hanlon · Hibernian |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Tony Macaroni Arena |
| 🟥 |
| Paul Hanlon · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 402.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1463.82 | 1541.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.46 | -20.51 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.51 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |