← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Muir
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 75% | 79% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 5.90 | fair |
| Dundee win | 9% | 7% | 11.94 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic +1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Dundee +1.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 54% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 46% | 2.42 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jota · Celtic |
| 19' | ⚽ | Kyogo Furuhashi · Celtic |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Dundee |
| 23' | 🟨 | Josip Juranović · Celtic |
| 23' | ⚽ | Danny Mullen · Dundee |
| 29' | 🟨 | Charlie Adam · Dundee |
| 43' | 🟨 | Max Anderson · Dundee |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jota · Celtic |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kyogo Furuhashi · Celtic |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lee Ashcroft · Dundee |
| 72' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 24 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lee Ashcroft · Dundee |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Turnbull · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 921.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1332.08 | 1726.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.72 | 19.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 69.00 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 2.67 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.09 | 2.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.32 |
| state index | -0.84 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |