← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Wed, Oct 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rangers win | 76% | 79% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 6.18 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 8% | 9% | 12.82 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rangers −1.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Aberdeen −1.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 70% | 1.78 | value: +25% ⚠ |
| Under | 45% | 30% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand