← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sun, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Beaton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 47% | 55% | 2.06 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 23% | 18% | 4.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hibernian −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 54% | 1.59 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 46% | 2.47 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hayden Muller · St Johnstone |
| 60' | 🟨 | Liam Craig · St Johnstone |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jamie McCart · St Johnstone |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joe Newell · Hibernian |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jamie McCart · St Johnstone |
| 75' | 🟥 | Jamie McCart · St Johnstone |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kevin Nisbet · Hibernian |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Doyle Hayes · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hibernian | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Easter Road Stadium |
| coach days | 695.00 | 5078.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1597.14 | 1507.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.32 | -13.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 71.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 28.29 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |