← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sun, Sep 26, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: W. Collum
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 36% | 46% | 2.74 | value: +27% |
| St Mirren win | 32% | 27% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| St Mirren +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 53% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 47% | 2.51 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Connor Ronan · St Mirren |
| 18' | ⚽ | Scott Brown · Aberdeen |
| 27' | 🟨 | Teddy Jenks · Aberdeen |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcus Fraser · St Mirren |
| 34' | ⚽ | Christian Ramirez · Aberdeen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lewis Ferguson · Aberdeen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Teddy Jenks · Aberdeen |
| 51' | 🟥 | Teddy Jenks · Aberdeen |
| 58' | ⚽ | Connor Ronan · St Mirren |
| 61' | ⚽ | Curtis Main · St Mirren |
| 66' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Mirren | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | The SMISA Stadium |
| Scott Brown · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonny Hayes · Aberdeen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calvin Ramsay · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 818.00 | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1449.98 | 1527.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.25 | -54.70 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |