← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Muir
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Dundee win | 38% | 39% | 2.61 | fair |
| Livingston win | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Dundee +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Livingston +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 60% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 40% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park |