← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 22, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: A. Muir
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 42% | 49% | 2.34 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.37 | fair |
| Dundee win | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hibernian +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jason Cummings · Dundee |
| 36' | 🟨 | Paul McGinn · Hibernian |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
| 49' | 🟨 | Paul McMullan · Dundee |
| 51' | 🟨 | Charlie Adam · Dundee |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lee Ashcroft · Dundee |
| 78' | 🟨 | Shaun Byrne · Dundee |
| 78' | 🟨 | Josh Doig · Hibernian |
| 83' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dundee | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park |
| Paul McGowan · Dundee |
| 83' | ⚽ | Paul McGowan · Dundee |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 844.00 | 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1326.66 | 1600.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.53 | 3.84 |
| eye test v1 | -1.92 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.50 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.50 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 13.88 | 9.71 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.56 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.20 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |