β Scottish Premiership 2021-22 Β· Sun, Aug 8, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: E. Anderson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 78% | 89% | 1.22 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 15% | 8% | 7.12 | fair |
| Dundee win | 8% | 3% | 13.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Celtic β1.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Dundee β1.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 59% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 41% | 2.81 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 3 |
| 15 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand