← Scottish Premiership 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 1, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Munro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 43% | 48% | 2.27 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Motherwell win | 28% | 24% | 3.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hibernian +0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Motherwell +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.22 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Kevin van Veen · Motherwell |
| 17' | ⚽ | Kyle Magennis · Hibernian |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jake Carroll · Motherwell |
| 29' | ⚽ | Bevis Mugabi · Motherwell |
| 31' | 🟨 | Callum Slattery · Motherwell |
| 48' | 🟨 | Paul Hanlon · Hibernian |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kevin van Veen · Motherwell |
| 56' | ⚽ | Christian Doidge · Hibernian |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lewis Stevenson · Hibernian |
| 69' | 🟨 | Stephen O'Donnell · Motherwell |
| 70' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Liam Kelly · Motherwell |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Boyle · Hibernian |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Hibernian |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 212.00 | 639.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1481.43 | 1606.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.13 | 20.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 2.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 28.70 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |