← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Sat, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Irvine
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston win | 40% | 31% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | value: +3% |
| Aberdeen win | 29% | 35% | 3.43 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Livingston −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 36% | 2.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Craig Sibbald · Livingston |
| 34' | 🟨 | Connor McLennan · Aberdeen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Scott Pittman · Livingston |
| 52' | ⚽ | Callum Hendry · Aberdeen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marvin Bartley · Livingston |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jack Fitzwater · Livingston |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ryan Hedges · Aberdeen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andy Considine · Aberdeen |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jay Emmanuel-Thomas · Livingston |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jonny Hayes · Aberdeen |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tony Macaroni Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Jack Mackenzie · Aberdeen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 181.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1508.20 | 1570.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.73 | -6.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 44.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 44.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 9.88 | 9.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.03 | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |