← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Wed, Apr 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Napier
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hibernian win | 53% | 49% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
| Livingston win | 19% | 22% | 5.05 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Livingston −0.75 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Hibernian −0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 47% | 2.39 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand