← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Anderson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 39% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +7% |
| Ross County win | 31% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ross County +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Kilmarnock +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Kyle Lafferty · Kilmarnock |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ross Millen · Kilmarnock |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kyle Lafferty · Kilmarnock |
| 38' | ⚽ | Billy McKay · Ross County |
| 47' | ⚽ | Leo Fuhr Hjelde · Ross County |
| 49' | ⚽ | Billy McKay · Ross County |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jordan Tillson · Ross County |
| 69' | 🟨 | Charlie Lakin · Ross County |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Kyle Lafferty · Kilmarnock |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ross Millen · Kilmarnock |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ross County | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Global Energy Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Ross Millen · Kilmarnock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 95.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1392.37 | 1425.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.93 | -29.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 29.66 |
| state index | -0.41 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |