← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Steven
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston win | 38% | 40% | 2.62 | value: +4% |
| Motherwell win | 32% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell +0.25 | 56% | 1.73 |
| Livingston +0.25 | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 57% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 43% | 2.69 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Devante Cole · Motherwell |
| 47' | 🟨 | Marvin Bartley · Livingston |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jon Guthrie · Livingston |
| 59' | ⚽ | Devante Cole · Motherwell |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jack Fitzwater · Livingston |
| 63' | 🟨 | Stephen O'Donnell · Motherwell |
| 69' | ⚽ | Christopher Long · Motherwell |
| 70' | 🟨 | Craig Sibbald · Livingston |
| 78' | 🟨 | Christopher Long · Motherwell |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nicky Devlin · Livingston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| coach days | 64.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1469.14 | 1530.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.82 | -17.17 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 32.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 56.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -2.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 27.26 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |