← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Sat, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Munro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 52% | 61% | 1.86 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.62 | fair |
| Hamilton win | 21% | 18% | 4.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Motherwell −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Hamilton −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Bruce Anderson · Hamilton |
| 18' | 🟥 | Stephen O'Donnell · Motherwell |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Ross Callachan · Hamilton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Marios Ogboe · Hamilton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tony Watt · Motherwell |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marios Ogboe · Hamilton |
| 64' | ⚽ | David Moyo · Hamilton |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark O'Hara · Motherwell |
| 72' | 🟨 | Scott Martin · Hamilton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tyler Magloire · Motherwell |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Motherwell | Hamilton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Fir Park |
| 🟨 |
| Barry Maguire · Motherwell |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · Hamilton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 43.00 | 1657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1487.69 | 1381.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.69 | -13.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 58.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 34.20 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -2.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 26.04 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |