← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Motherwell win | 40% | 45% | 2.45 | value: +9% |
| Ross County win | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ross County +0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Motherwell +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.84 | value: +5% |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Global Energy Stadium |