← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 20, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: W. Collum
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 61% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.15 | fair |
| Livingston win | 15% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Livingston +1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Celtic +1 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 47% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 53% | 2.04 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand