← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Muir
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston win | 58% | 64% | 1.68 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Ross County win | 16% | 14% | 6.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Ross County −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 51% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 49% | 2.36 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Scott Robinson · Livingston |
| 11' | 🟨 | Jason Holt · Livingston |
| 12' | 🟨 | Jordan Tillson · Ross County |
| 28' | ⚽ | Charlie Lakin · Ross County |
| 30' | 🟨 | Alex Iacovitti · Ross County |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ross Draper · Ross County |
| 58' | 🟨 | Harrison Paton · Ross County |
| 81' | 🟨 | Regan Charles-Cook · Ross County |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alan Forrest · Livingston |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Hamilton · Livingston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livingston | Ross County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tony Macaroni Arena |
| coach days | 70.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1518.95 | 1378.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 75.93 | -8.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 43.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.17 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.02 | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |