← Scottish Premiership 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 23, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Walsh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rangers win | 72% | 78% | 1.35 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.18 | fair |
| St Johnstone win | 9% | 8% | 10.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St Johnstone +1.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Rangers +1.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 58% | 1.86 | value: +9% |
| Under | 48% | 42% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand