← Scottish Premiership 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aitken
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hearts win | 36% | 39% | 2.70 | value: +6% |
| St Johnstone win | 34% | 29% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hearts +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| St Johnstone +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand