← Scottish Premiership 2019-20 · Wed, Jan 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Robertson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rangers win | 89% | 87% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 10% | 12.42 | value: +21% |
| Ross County win | 3% | 4% | 34.00 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rangers −2.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Ross County −2.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 60% | 1.31 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 40% | 3.75 | value: +49% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand