← Scottish Premiership 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 29, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Clancy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 44% | 50% | 2.19 | value: +10% |
| Rangers win | 28% | 27% | 3.46 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rangers −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 41% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 59% | 1.99 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Nikola Katic · Rangers |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ryan Kent · Rangers |
| 38' | 🟨 | Scott Brown · Celtic |
| 41' | ⚽ | Odsonne Édouard · Celtic |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Celtic |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nikola Katic · Rangers |
| 70' | 🟨 | Glen Kamara · Rangers |
| 71' | 🟨 | Boli Bolingoli · Celtic |
| 82' | 🟨 | Borna Barišić · Rangers |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 331.00 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alfredo Morelos · Rangers |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1842.01 | 1829.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.30 | 8.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 70.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 52.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.74 | 2.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 14.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | 1.27 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |