← Scottish Premiership 2019-20 · Wed, Dec 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Muir
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 89% | 88% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 7% | 13.16 | fair |
| Hamilton win | 3% | 5% | 39.47 | value: +90% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Celtic −2.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hamilton −2.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 69% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 31% | 3.75 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand