β Scottish Premiership 2019-20 Β· Sun, Dec 1, 12:00 PM UTC Β· ref: N. Walsh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 83% | 77% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 16% | 9.00 | value: +48% |
| Ross County win | 6% | 6% | 21.00 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ross County +2.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Celtic +2.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.91 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 2 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Global Energy Stadium |