← Scottish Premiership 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K Clancy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rangers win | 68% | 66% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.77 | fair |
| Hearts win | 12% | 13% | 8.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.