← Scottish Premiership 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Dallas
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 82% | 78% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.40 | value: +9% |
| Hamilton win | 5% | 8% | 19.00 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.