← Scottish Premiership 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B Madden
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.91 | fair |
| Aberdeen win | 16% | 20% | 6.12 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.